How Poland can keep its place at the heart of Europe
How Poland can keep its place at the heart of Europe
If it turns inward, the country and continent will lose out
TWICE IT VANISHED from the map, swallowed up by its rapacious neighbours. After it emerged from the second world war as a Soviet satellite, it endured decades of oppression. Today, Poland has transformed itself into Europe’s most overlooked military and economic power—with a bigger army than Britain, France or Germany and living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, that are about to eclipse Japan’s. Yet, just when Poland should stand proud and tall once more, is it about to throw away its influence?
That is the question Poles face in the decisive run-off vote to elect their president on June 1st. One vision, from the candidate of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, is a brand of right-wing nationalism that feeds off conflict with Poland’s neighbours and the European Union. The other, from the centre, is that, in a dangerous world, Poland needs Europe to magnify its strengths, just as Europe needs Poland as a source of security and economic dynamism. Unfortunately, at the moment the right may have the upper hand.
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Why so much is riding on Poland’s presidential elections
For the past three decades, Poland has shown how much a country can achieve by European integration and good economic policy. Since 1995 income per person has more than trebled. Since it joined the EU in 2004 Poland has never known recession apart from briefly at the height of the covid-19 shutdown. During those two decades, its average annual growth has been almost 4%.
The fruits of that growth are on display across the country. Warsaw, the capital, boasts Europe’s tallest building outside Russia, the Varso tower; and below it bustles with designer shops and cafés, IT startups and fashion houses. Out in the once-neglected countryside, fine roads, often built with EU money, criss-cross vistas of well-tended fields, farms, and new houses.
Poles used to flock abroad to find work, but for some years now, home has been a stronger draw. Manufacturing is booming, thanks to Poland’s proximity to Germany, continuing to do well even as its western neighbour, like much of Europe, has stagnated. When Germany, under its new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, starts a planned new burst of infrastructure and defence spending, Poland is likely to be a beneficiary.
Long attuned to the threat from Russia, Poland has used its wealth to enhance its security. It now musters the largest army in Europe after Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, and the third-largest in NATO. It spends well over 4% of its GDP each year on defence, far above the 2% that has been the NATO target since 2014, and plans to raise that to over 5% next year.
This has translated into influence. These days, the group that counts in European security is sometimes dubbed the four musketeers: the young addition to Britain, France, and Germany is Poland, like the superlative swordsman d’Artagnan. Tellingly, its prime minister, Donald Tusk, travelled to Kyiv earlier this month with his three counterparts to stress that Europe is ready to stand by Ukraine even as America’s commitment has weakened. Poland’s stance is in sharp distinction to the rest of the “Visegrad Four”. Hungary under Viktor Orban and Slovakia under Robert Fico have both taken the side of Russia rather than Ukraine, and the Czech Republic is expected to tilt in that direction after elections in October.
Given Poland’s record, much of it achieved during the total of ten years in which PiS has been in power, you might conclude that it could continue its renaissance with either candidate in June’s run-off election, especially as the role of president in Poland is less powerful than that of prime minister. However, that would be a mistake.
Under the constitution, the president’s veto can be overridden only by a three-fifths majority in the Sejm, the lower house, which Mr Tusk does not command. The current president, Andrzej Duda, is a former PiS politician who has blocked or delayed many of the new government’s reforms and is now termed out. PiS wants his successor to be Karol Nawrocki, a fierce ideologue who would be even less accommodating than Mr Duda. Mr Nawrocki is almost certain to use his powers to block Mr Tusk’s agenda, so as to pave the way for a PiS victory in the next parliamentary elections. To win the presidency, he would depend on support from far-right parties that exploit growing anti-Ukrainian feelings; one is openly antisemitic.
This matters because Mr Tusk is trying to unravel PiS’s capture of the state while it was most recently in office, from 2015 to 2023. In that time, while pursuing mostly sensible economic and security policies, PiS systematically took over independent institutions, including the judiciary, the media, the civil service, the central bank, and the banking system. PiS’s fights with Brussels over the rule of law caused Poland to be temporarily excluded from some of the EU’s aid programs.
By contrast, Mr Tusk is a committed European—he previously served as the president of the European Council in Brussels. Under him, Poland has co-operated with other European countries on security, diplomacy, and defence to the benefit of all. Were Poles to use the presidential election to vote in Rafal Trzaskowski, a Tusk ally who is Warsaw’s mayor, EU co-operation would be easier and Poland’s influence would grow further.
The world has changed since Mr Tusk took over. With another Donald back in the White House, the task of building up Europe’s strategic autonomy is not just a luxury but an urgent necessity. Poland could not only set an example in security but also serve as a powerful voice for supporting Ukraine and deterring Russia. Economically, Poland is an example to central and eastern European countries, and Mr Tusk could be a proponent of the economic reforms the EU desperately needs.
Don’t throw it away
Next week’s election is finely balanced. In the first round, the candidates of the hard right took around 52% of the vote. Were Mr Nawrocki to win the second round, both Poland and Europe would suffer. Europe would lose a source of dynamism, and Poland would risk losing the place at the heart of Europe it has worked so hard to claim.
Read more: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/05/22/how-poland-can-keep-its-place-at-the-heart-of-europe
